A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
