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Growing apprehensions are present about the potential of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa neighbors, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as confrontational discourse has escalated in the last month.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for passage to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has provoked a intense rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister first openly declared in the previous year that his country's access to the sea was an vital issue, statements that Eritrea rejected.

Ties between the neighboring nations have frequently been strained. After a long-standing struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a long Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopia in 1993, making it without sea access.

In 1998, a territorial conflict broke out in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Current Remarks from Ethiopian Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader the army commander have directly stated control of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and suggested the desire to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "mistake" of being denied passage to the sea as a because of Eritrea's separation would be "corrected soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "using武力".

Eritrea's Response to the Threats

Amid continuous challenges from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to brief comments on online platforms from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopian requests for access to the Red Sea labeling it "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a policy of retaking former lands.

The information ministry warned on recently that attempts to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Region

Currently, there are little evidence of major military movements in the boundary zones between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in the country, state television has displayed completion events of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The leader of personnel division of the military, the officer, stated recently in an discussion that the defense forces was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Previous Roots of the Conflict

For more than half a century from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by colonial powers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then managed by the British administration before evolving into a federated part of Ethiopia.

However in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this agreement and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year internal conflict occurred, concluding with the government's loss in 1991. Sovereignty was then approved by Eritreans in a referendum in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they clashed over the precise positioning of their shared boundary, resulting in hostilities in 1998.

Although this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries remained at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrea's leader the president. The two signed a announcement that the conflict was over – a decision that earned the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The both administrations were then partners in Ethiopia's recent armed struggle in the northern region.

However ties have later worsened again.