Everyday Homicides in Mexico Drop Over a Third Under Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Figures

The average count of everyday killings monthly in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh official data. Nevertheless, security specialists have warned that murder figures may not point to enhanced countrywide safety.

Marked Drop in Daily Numbers

There was an average of close to 55 killings a day in last November versus roughly 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidency in September. This data was shared by the head of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we have seen in these months is extremely notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, noting that in November the smallest amount of murders were documented for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Violent drug cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s highly militarised operations to combat the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent years. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate over 4x greater than the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her public safety approach for an seemingly sharper decline in killings this year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The key pillars of the President's safety plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation work.
• Increased coordination between government departments.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Limitations

However, security analysts cautioned that using murder statistics to paint a picture of pacification was misleading. This is notably true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“This would be very good news if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just look at the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not useful for estimating the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the desire to correctly recognize and categorize corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly means of everyday homicides was also an issue because it may obscure periods when there were notably high levels of murders.

“Employing the daily mean renders surges of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can cite the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were apprehended between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

However despite these actions, Mexico is still plagued by severe violence, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a high-profile murder of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the last year.

A short time later, thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to voice their outrage at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to build a story of safety. Politically it’s very effective, socially it’s very questionable,” Vargas said.