Foreign Office Advised Regarding Armed Intervention to Topple Robert Mugabe

Recently released papers show that the UK's diplomatic corps cautioned against British military action to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Show Deliberations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government show officials considered options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Following the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Policy of Isolation Considered Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was not working, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the documents included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "realistic option," and warned that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military intervention would cause significant losses and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we assess that no nation in Africa would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document continues: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Long-Term Strategy Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We must devise a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had advocated critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.