From Reluctant Respect to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro.

A surprise raid on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fed a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”