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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround wins the prize. However, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

However the current competition is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime strugglers improving collectively. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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