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An ex-colonel from the special forces, minister of state Al Carns was this week on manouevres cautioning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.

“The shadow of war is knocking on Europe’s door again. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he said, in comments that go beyond previous admonitions by his superior, the defence secretary.

“Collectively, everybody – what is their role if we get caught in an fight for survival, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a military endeavour?”

It was stark language from the 45-year-old born in Scotland MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of minister for the military.

Rapid Rise to Prominence

Naturally for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is a potential future leader – as with, at various points, other military figures before him.

This time, however, some governing party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the danger of being over-promoted as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will resonate with the public – without enough consideration of whether they have the track record and political instincts to make it to the top.

Military Career and Transition

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and educated in the state system, before enlisting in the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He advanced his career and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a shock when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the 2024 election. He was elevated later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

Chiselled and confident, Carns has been an occasional media performer for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when criticising rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimating on the mountain, aided by xenon gas.

Leadership Speculation and Internal Caution

His name was floated as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a deputy contest last autumn, when his backers began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That did not gain traction, with the prime minister's office firmly backing another candidate.

Since then, profiles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to stop from challenging the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be prime ministerial timber, others think he is making himself appear overly eager when there is no vacancy at the top. There is also a apprehension about the rapid rise of a high flyer from outside politics.

“There’s no evidence that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is an unknown quantity.”